The puzzle has been completed. Putin's decree on issuing russian passports to residents of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (mind you - without the Kharkiv!), following the "DNR" and "LNR", indicated the goals on which the russia-Fuhrer decided to stop. And Kissinger's speech in Davos announced for the West the Moscow price of its compromise with russia on the issue of "de-escalation" in Ukraine. Today, the same conditions have already been voiced directly by the Kremlin. "Moscow expects Kyiv to accept Moscow's demands and realize the de facto situation - the real situation that exists", - Peskov stated.
In other words, putin told the West through the mouths of Kissinger and Peskov that if the West wants an end to the war, which creates enormous problems for it, then it he is ready to stop at the borders of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts of Ukraine. He allegedly will not go further, perhaps, even return the occupied areas of the Kharkiv oblast, which today are needed only to encircle the JFO group in the Donbas, but he will not retreat from the south-east of Ukraine either. That is, putin wants the West to accept the de facto situation (he does not care about legal recognition, as in the case of CADLO), and in exchange for this, he offers peace. But at the expense of the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
This is a very dangerous situation for us, because even a terrible NATO weapon does not fire without ammunition for it and tanks do not drive without a diesel engine. Ukraine has nothing of its own. All this comes from the West. That is, the West will be able to dictate to Kyiv the conditions for concluding peace with the Kremlin simply by dosing the supply of ammunition, or even stopping it altogether. In economic terms, we are also totally dependent on Western partners today…
As of today, the position of the West is mainly on the side of Ukraine and against putin, because Moscow committed aggression, created a threat to the world and failed to solve its problems in Ukraine this quickly that the West would not suffer from it.
That is, while the russian federation is advancing, it is a problem for the West. But as soon as putin (God forbid!) takes control of the Donetsk, the Luhansk and the rest of the Zaporizhzhia oblast, the russian army will dig in there and stop the offensive. That is, it will cease to be a threat of escalation. After that, it is Ukraine, which will try to advance in order to regain its territory, that will become an escalation threat for the West. That is, it is Kyiv, and not putin, that will then become a problem for the West ...
This most dangerous situation for us can be avoided only by the fact that the AFU will not allow putin to take control and gain a foothold in the occupied territories marked by him with russian citizenship. If he does this (and according to intelligence information, the russians are already building a third (!) line of defense in the Kherson oblast), we risk losing not only the territory, but also the effective support of the West, thanks to which we could return this territory in the future ...
After all, the West (with a few exceptions) does not care who controls the Ukrainian territories - Moscow or Kyiv. The West only wants to be no war that hits the economy, interferes with trade and this way, affects the attitude of the electorate towards politicians. Western politicians love to talk about values, but they know that their constituents vote based not on the values, but on the content of their refrigerators. Therefore, if we allow weakness now and let Moscow gain a foothold in the South and the Donbas, then the West will not forgive us for this weakness. The same it did not forgive 8 years of our weakness in the Crimea and CADLO, although it spoke about supporting our territorial integrity. It spoke, but put pressure on us in the negotiations all the time, so that we were "constructive" in relation to Moscow. In fact, putin now wants the West, weary of the war and openly afraid of escalation, to behave in the same way as it did for 8 years regarding the Donbas and the Crimea in exchange for "peace". This is a very serious temptation. Especially for our European "partners"… But it depends on us whether the Kremlin's Gentleman Jack will lead it into this temptation…
Serhiy Harmash, OstroV