“The idea itself is great, and we certainly support it, but there are questions we need to discuss. I think we also need to talk with our American partners. Maybe call President Trump and discuss it with him”.
That was a “yes” to Trump but a “no” to Trump’s proposal for a quick truce.
Yes, 25 years in power have made putin a skilled diplomat, teaching him how to say “no” while pronouncing “yes”. And in doing so, leaving hope for a “yes” without giving a reason to react to his “no”.
But if we strip away the elegant words, putin essentially said “yes” but surrounded that “yes” with conditions so extreme that fulfilling them would amount to Kyiv’s capitulation in the war in exchange for a 30-day truce. Clearly, these are unrealistic demands.
And now, the ball (or the “keys to peace”, as stated in the joint U.S.-Ukraine declaration after Jeddah talks) is back in the Americans’ court: either they force Zelensky into humiliating and self-destructive decisions for the sake of a 30-day pause (which can be broken at any moment), or they themselves will have to backtrack on their threats of “hellish sanctions” and push the truce initiative into the realm of empty rhetoric.
There’s also a third option: Trump could enter into an open conflict with his defiant “friend”. But it seems putin himself doesn’t believe in such a scenario, given his behind-the-scenes contacts with the White House and the wide range of shared interests beyond Ukraine.
It looks like the kremlin autocrat is betting that Trump, to save face, will pressure Ukraine into fulfilling at least some of putin’s conditions. And somewhere in the middle, after the Kursk operation concludes, a short-term ceasefire might actually happen. Perhaps in exchange for yet another halt in U.S. military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine…
Did anyone actually expect putin to say “yes” without setting conditions? He would have lost face in his own country. And Trump, who “understands” putin even where international law does not, surely realizes this.
In any case, the kremlin is using the U.S. proposal to draw Trump into a bargaining process. (As long as Trump is in the White House, the word “negotiations” can be replaced with “haggling”). For him, discussing the deal is more important than the deal itself. He will drag out the process, squeezing military weakening of Kyiv and political weakening of Zelensky out of Trump.
Whether there will be a truce after the Ukrainian grouping is pushed out of the Kursk oblast is no longer as important to putin. What matters now is not saying “no” to Trump, while also not missing the opportunities Trump has already opened up for russia in Kursk by blocking intelligence-sharing. After that, a pause can be agreed upon—for instance, to redeploy the freed-up forces from the Kursk oblast to Donbas.
And one crucial detail: putin began his speech about the truce by thanking Trump and managed to rope in nearly all of BRICS, from China to South Africa. This is a clear attempt to balance himself diplomatically against the United States by leveraging the “Global South”. Which, in turn, indicates that the dialogue with Trump is extremely important for russia. But it will not be easy for the U.S.
Has Trump, blinded by his peacock vanity, understood this? And what will he be willing to do to maintain his image as “brilliant” and “strong”? That question remains open for now.
By Serhiy Harmash, editor-in-chief of OstroV