In 2024, russia focused on capturing the remainder of the Donetsk oblast and creating a buffer zone in the north of the Kharkiv oblast but failed to achieve these goals, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts noted that, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi, russian losses in the war in 2024 exceeded 420,000 personnel.
"ISW analyzed geolocated evidence to estimate that russian forces advanced 4,168 square kilometers in 2024, indicating that russian forces suffered approximately 102 losses per square kilometer of territory captured in Ukraine", - the report states.
Experts highlighted that russian military leadership "prioritized efforts to capture the remainder of the Donetsk oblast and create a buffer zone in the north of the Kharkiv oblast in 2024 but failed to meet these objectives".
"Western and Ukrainian sources estimated that in 2023 and 2024, russia intended to capture the entire territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of 2024. However, the slow advance of russian troops in early and mid-2024 likely forced russian military leadership to reassess its plans and designate the capture of Pokrovsk as the primary offensive task for the remainder of 2024", - ISW stated.
In December 2024, the Institute for the Study of War noted a significant slowdown in the pace of russian advances on the front lines. russian forces captured 593 square kilometers, averaging 18.1 square kilometers per day, compared to 27.96 square kilometers per day in November 2024.
A key feature of 2024 was that russian forces, aside from capturing several settlements such as Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove, failed to make significant breakthroughs into strategically important Ukrainian defensive hubs. ISW's assessments indicate that these settlements lack substantial operational importance, as their capture does not threaten key Ukrainian defensive positions.
According to ISW estimates, approximately 8,559 square kilometers of the Donetsk oblast remain free, containing critical defensive positions and major cities, including along the so-called defensive belt. Analysts emphasized that, at the current pace, it could take russian forces more than two years to capture the remainder of this territory. However, this assumption is based on the condition that their offensives remain confined to the Donetsk oblast and that they can capture large cities as quickly as smaller villages and fields, which appears highly unlikely.
For Ukraine, it is crucial to maintain resilience in key sectors of the front and halt the enemy's advances. ISW analysts also stressed that support from Western partners is decisive in stabilizing the front line in 2025. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have largely halted russian advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, but fighting continues toward Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.