The kremlin is reportedly sending signals to russians and the international community about its readiness to end the war in Ukraine this year. According to the German publication BILD, an "internal analysis" by the German government includes this conclusion.
"One of the reasons for this conclusion is the worsening economic situation in russia. Interest rates and food prices are rising sharply. Over the last five months alone, the ruble has lost more than 20% of its value against the euro. The round-the-clock operation of the military-industrial complex can no longer conceal crises in other sectors. While economic growth in 2024 was just under 4%, the forecast for 2025 predicts no more than 1% growth. Another indicator is the russian presidential administration’s preparation for a post-war election campaign (specifically for the 2026 parliamentary elections). ‘The administration assumes that the end of the ‘special military operation (SMO)’ will occur, and preparations must be made’", - one source told BILD. Future "SMO" results should be perceived as a victory by society, the source explained. Work is already underway on a "victory narrative", BILD reports, citing russian Kommersant.
German analysts view such publications as kremlin-approved, with the information deliberately leaked. The publication also openly outlines electoral goals: the kremlin has set a turnout and result target for "United russia" at 55% in the upcoming elections.
At the same time, the kremlin is reportedly concerned about soldiers returning from the front. Officials plan to focus on their employment, financial support, and fostering "respectful attitudes" toward them in society. The aim is to prevent military personnel from being drawn into "protest movements or criminal activities".
A key factor in the scenario of a swift end to the war is believed to be the intention of the next U.S. president, Donald Trump, to initiate negotiations with moscow and Kyiv as soon as possible after his inauguration on January 20.
In response to BILD’s inquiry, however, the German Foreign Ministry stated that the government currently assumes the war will continue: "putin is not currently seriously interested in peace negotiations or a sustainable peace. [Russia] is not backing down from its maximal demands, such as recognition of the annexation of Ukrainian territory".
According to BILD, the government analysis merely presents a potential scenario. As usual, signals from the kremlin could mean something else, the opposite, or nothing at all, political commentator Philipp Piatov concludes.