Without U.S. support, russia would advance in 2025 as Kyiv runs out of weapons. By 2026, Ukraine will lose effective air defense, allowing russia to conduct continuous large-scale bombings. This opinion was expressed in The Hill by Elaine McCusker, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former acting Pentagon Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller).
"The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to fight bravely, but will likely collapse by the end of that year, allowing russia to capture Kyiv and then approach NATO’s border", - McCusker noted.
According to the analyst, after this, russia will use captured Ukrainian resources to rebuild its army, which will then be stationed along NATO’s borders. McCusker suggests that by 2030, russia could be ready to attack other countries.
She also emphasized that the consequences of this seemingly distant European conflict would be felt by Americans themselves if Ukraine falls.
According to her, if Ukraine is defeated, the U.S. would be forced to spend an additional $800 billion—seven times more than all the aid the Pentagon has provided to Ukraine since 2022.